November 26, 2025: In a sharp turnaround from months of trade friction, China has reportedly committed to buying at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans — a deal worth roughly US $300 million — mere days after a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
According to trade sources familiar with the contracts, the new orders represent between 600,000 and 975,000 metric tons of soybeans, with shipments scheduled for January 2026 from Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest ports in the United States.
The move comes after months of minimal buying by China, which had largely shunned U.S. soy over the previous harvest season amid tariff tensions and a broader trade standoff between Washington and Beijing.
What Triggered the Buying Spree
The surge in purchases follows the recent phone call between Trump and Xi, during which Trump pressed Xi to accelerate and expand Chinese purchases of U.S. goods — including agricultural commodities. Xi reportedly “more or less agreed,” prompting immediate action from Chinese commodity buyers.
State-owned grain trading giant COFCO is said to have led the buying, after earlier in late October securing nearly 2 million tons of U.S. soybeans — signalling a major shift in sourcing strategy.
Despite Higher Prices, China Buys U.S. Soy — Why?
What makes the purchases notable is that U.S. soybeans are priced at a premium compared to Brazilian alternatives — about $2.20–$2.30 per bushel over Chicago futures, versus roughly $1.80 for Brazilian beans.
Financially, this premium doesn’t make much sense for commodity crush-house buyers seeking cost-effective raw material. But the decision appears driven more by geopolitics and trade diplomacy than by raw economics — a tangible sign that both countries may be trying to reset trade relations, at least in agriculture.
Analysts say the deal may also be aimed at signalling reliability ahead of the U.S. export window — with China perhaps willing to absorb higher prices now in exchange for stable long-term access.
Broader Implications
The development is seen as a major moment for U.S.–China trade relations. For U.S. farmers — especially soy producers in states like Iowa and Illinois — this renewed demand offers welcome relief after a season of steep uncertainty. The orders may help stabilize global soybean prices which had been under pressure due to plentiful South American supply.
For China, the shift may help shore up its protein feed supply for livestock and reduce reliance on South American imports. It may also reflect a broader thaw in bilateral trade tensions — partly driven by political manoeuvring ahead of global summits and economic negotiations.
Are There Risks or Caveats?
Yes — some traders caution that the renewed buying may just be temporary or politically motivated, rather than a return to long-term purchasing behavior. U.S. soybeans remain costlier than Brazilian or Argentine alternatives; if global supply tightens or prices fall elsewhere, future imports from the U.S. may again decline.
Additionally, the total volume bought — under one million tons — still falls far short of the multi-million-ton purchases pledged by the U.S. administration under recent agreements.
What the Key Players Are Saying
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is “right on schedule” with its soybean purchase commitments, though the recent buys remain modest compared to earlier pledges.
- Analysts view the purchases as more symbolic — a way for both sides to show goodwill and stabilise diplomatic trade relations — rather than purely market-driven decisions.
Summary
Following a Trump–Xi phone call, China bought at least 10 U.S. soybean cargoes worth about $300 million — a dramatic turnaround that signals a thaw in bilateral trade and renewed agricultural ties.