29 April 2025 : Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will retain power in Ottawa, but even after trends from almost all ridings in the country were available late on Monday night, it was unclear whether he would be able to secure a majority.
Despite projections on the eve of the election predicting a majority for the ruling party, the two principal parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, were within three percent in terms of vote share.
Carney made his electoral debut by easily winning the riding (as Canadian constituencies are called) of Nepean in Ontario by a large margin, capturing nearly two-thirds of the votes polled.
However, the results were not entirely going the way he may have hoped earlier in the day, with a majority appearing somewhat elusive. After 11 p.m. Eastern Time in Canada, the Liberals were on track to garner 163 seats, with the Conservatives close behind at 146. The Conservatives were gaining over a dozen seats in Ontario, which has 121 ridings—the largest haul in the country.
Many ridings remained too close to call, with margins within about 100 votes.
While the Liberals gained some seats in Quebec, those gains were offset by possible losses in Ontario, mainly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and by their inability to make headway in the prairie provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The Liberals were commanding a significant vote share, almost 44 percent—over 10 points higher than in the previous federal election in 2021. However, their principal rivals, the Conservative Party, weren’t far behind, with just over 41 percent support.
Former Cabinet Minister Arif Virani told CBC News that Carney ran an “ambitious” campaign and that this was reflected in the results.
This made for the most unusual election of this century, as it turned into a two-party race, with smaller federal parties like the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Greens suffering and unable to capture even 10 percent of the votes cast.
While turnout is not expected to surpass the record of 79.4 percent set in 1958, it could exceed the September 2021 tally of less than 63 percent. A substantial number—nearly 7.3 million Canadians—voted in advance polls, a 25 percent increase over the 2021 figure.
Carney and his rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, delivered their final messages to voters on Monday. For the Prime Minister, it was a repetition of his mantra, “Canada Strong,” which he has used effectively to counter threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Those threats—of tariffs and annexation—have fueled a turnaround for Carney and the Liberals after they were tottering at the end of 2024. Carney emphasized standing up to Trump in a video posted on social media Monday morning, stating, “This is Canada—we decide what happens here.
Let’s choose to be united and strong. Canada Strong.”
Trump inserted himself into the conversation again by posting on Truth Social, “Good luck to the great people of Canada.” But he went on to repeat his assertion that Canada would be better off as America’s 51st state.
That drew a retort from Poilievre, who posted, “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box.
Canada will always be proud, sovereign, and independent, and we will NEVER be the 51st state.”
If Carney does emerge victorious as the final results are declared late Monday night, it will mark a remarkable entry into retail politics for the former Governor of the Bank of Canada (and Bank of England). He entered the Liberal leadership race in January after then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign once the process was complete. Carney swept that race on March 9 and was sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14. Just six days later, he triggered snap elections, ahead of the originally scheduled October vote.
Another factor helping the Liberals was Trudeau’s exit, as he had become incredibly unpopular in the final months of his tenure.
The majority of voters had already decided whom they would support, the agency Ipsos said on Sunday evening. “With votes now locked in, the question now focuses on voter turnout and motivation,” it added.
As votes were marked on Monday, Canadians were choosing between Carney’s offer of stability and Poilievre’s call for change.
Summary:
Mark Carney appears poised for another term as Canada’s Prime Minister, though projections suggest he may need to form a minority government.