24 February 2026 (Navroze Bureau) : Global financial markets have been rattled in recent days after a widely circulated report by Citrini Research warned of a potential economic shock driven by rapid advances in artificial intelligence. The report, which quickly went viral among investors, economists, and policymakers, has sparked fears of mass layoffs, distorted economic growth, and heightened market volatility, prompting sharp reactions across equity markets.
The report, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future,” is not presented as a conventional forecast. Instead, it is framed as a scenario analysis that imagines how the global economy could evolve if highly autonomous, agent-like AI systems are adopted far faster than societies and institutions are prepared for. Despite its hypothetical nature, the dramatic narrative and stark conclusions have unsettled investors already nervous about slowing growth and high valuations in technology stocks.
At the heart of the report is the argument that advanced AI could rapidly replace large sections of white-collar and knowledge-based work. Roles in software development, finance, legal services, consulting, research, and customer support are highlighted as particularly vulnerable. According to the scenario, companies facing competitive pressure would increasingly turn to AI systems that can perform complex tasks at a fraction of the cost of human labour, leading to widespread layoffs and a sharp decline in wage growth.
The report suggests that while productivity would surge due to AI-driven output, the benefits would be unevenly distributed. Corporate profits and headline economic indicators could remain strong, even as household incomes stagnate or fall. This mismatch is described as “ghost GDP,” a situation where economic growth exists on paper but does not translate into real purchasing power for consumers. As a result, consumer demand weakens, creating a feedback loop that eventually slows the broader economy.
Markets reacted nervously as the report gained traction, with technology and AI-linked stocks facing selling pressure. Investors began reassessing long-term assumptions about growth, employment, and profitability, particularly in sectors that have been major beneficiaries of the AI boom. Analysts say the report struck a nerve because it challenges the dominant narrative that AI-driven productivity gains will automatically lift overall economic prosperity.
Another key concern raised in the scenario is the strain on public finances. As automation reduces employment and wage income, governments could face shrinking tax revenues at the same time that demand for social support rises. The report argues that existing fiscal and social safety systems may be ill-equipped to handle such a rapid and structural shift in the labour market, increasing the risk of social and political instability.
While the authors of the report emphasise that it is a thought experiment rather than a prediction, they argue that it should serve as a warning. They call for early policy discussions around managing AI-driven disruption, including rethinking taxation, investing in large-scale retraining programmes, and strengthening social safety nets. One idea explored is the taxation of windfall gains generated by AI productivity, with the proceeds used to support displaced workers and fund reskilling initiatives.
Critics of the report say its assumptions are overly pessimistic and underestimate the ability of economies to adapt. They argue that new technologies historically create new jobs even as they eliminate old ones, and that AI may augment human work rather than fully replace it in many areas. Others note that regulatory frameworks, corporate responsibility, and gradual adoption could moderate the pace of disruption.
Despite the debate, the impact of the Citrini Research report has been undeniable. By putting worst-case scenarios into stark and accessible terms, it has forced markets and policymakers to confront uncomfortable questions about the future of work, the distribution of economic gains, and the resilience of current growth models. In an environment already marked by uncertainty, the report has added a new layer of anxiety about whether the AI revolution could bring not just efficiency and innovation, but also profound economic and social challenges.
Summary:
A viral Citrini Research report warning that rapid AI adoption could trigger mass white-collar layoffs, weaken consumer demand, and distort economic growth has unsettled global markets and reignited fears of a future economic crisis.