22 Sep 2025 : India’s stock market is likely to see a tepid start today, as the impact of H-1B visa changes on IT stocks led by Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. and Infosys Ltd. is likely to weigh on the wider stock market. On the flip side, there’s a silver lining—the new goods and services tax rates go live today. They’re expected to shape near-term earnings and set the stage for how different sectors will play out in the days ahead.
More Bumps Ahead For Indian IT stocks
It seems software exporters just can’t catch a break these days. Even as concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence weigh on the sector’s growth, President Donald Trump’s decision to sharply hike application fees for so-called H-1B visas could muddy the outlook further.
While tech majors, including Infosys Ltd. and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., have reduced their reliance on these visas since Trump first took office, the fresh news from Washington could still pinch margins. And while some legal experts believe the move may not hold up in court, for India’s tech companies, this is one more item on an already long list of near-term challenges.
Industrials Headwinds
It’s not just tech feeling the heat. Industrial stocks may not be done sliding just yet, say Ambit analysts. Demand remains lukewarm, and while high-voltage transmission equipment is undersupplied now, that gap should narrow over the next two to three years, putting a lid on margins, they note. Add in weak private capex and dominant global players eying India, and it’s a tough setup. Ambit expects profit margins and return on capital for these firms to drift lower, with sell calls on Siemens Energy, CG Power and Siemens.
A Reality Check For Real Estate Stocks
Real estate shows a similar story of momentum meeting constraints. Developers may tout strong pre-sales, but ultimately it is the housing cycle itself that sets the tone for real-estate stocks, according to Nuvama. Right now, the story is patchy: surging house prices are hurting affordability and cooling volumes. Bengaluru and Chennai are holding up, but Mumbai, Hyderabad, Pune and Gurugram are finding it harder to keep momentum.
With lower rates cushioning the downside but sluggish volumes capping the upside, Nuvama expects stocks to stay rangebound. Prestige Estates and Brigade Enterprises are Nuvama’s top picks.
Financial Stocks
Banks, however, are telling a different tale. A gauge of state-owned lenders is now about 4 percentage points ahead of private peers, after trailing for much of this year.
Systematix sees this as more than a short-term blip: operational metrics are improving and, in many respects, rival or outdo private banks. Throw in more attractive valuations, and the case for re-rating strengthens. Its top buys: Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra and Union Bank of India.
Summary:
Markets opened weak on September 22, 2025, with IT stocks plunging after the U.S. hiked H-1B visa fees. PSU banks, infra, and realty stocks offered resilience.