11 Sep 2025:Death rates from chronic diseases such as cancer, heart disease, and stroke increased in India in the decade leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new paper published in The Lancet on Tuesday, even as they fell in four out of five countries covered by the study.
The increase was larger for Indian females than for Indian males, for whom the probability of dying from non-communicable diseases (NCD) between birth and age 80 years increased by only 0.1 percentage points. The increase in the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 years was driven by an increase in mortality above age 40 years for females and above age 55 years for males, according to the paper.
The authors attributed the increase in mortality to particularly large contributions to an increase in overall NCD mortality from ischaemic heart disease and diabetes (including chronic kidney disease due to diabetes) for both sexes. There was, however, a decline in mortality from cirrhosis of the liver and the residual category of all other NCDs for both sexes, with additional improvements for males in stomach cancer, COPD, stroke, and the residual category of all other circulatory diseases.
The 2010–19 change, the authors said, was a deterioration (ie, going from a decrease to an increase) compared with the preceding decade for females, but an improvement (ie, smaller increase) compared with the preceding decade for males. For females, this occurred as a result of deterioration in the direction or size of change for all causes of death except cirrhosis of the liver, COPD, and the residual category of all other NCDs. For males, it was a result of an improvement in the direction or size of change for eight of the 20 NCD causes of death analysed, including COPD, ischaemic heart disease, and cirrhosis of the liver, countered by less favourable (but smaller) changes in some other causes of death (eg, upper aerodigestive tract cancers and stroke).
The authors also noted that these results are subject to substantial uncertainty because mortality data are limited with quality evaluated as very low.
Summary : A Lancet study revealed worldwide decline in chronic disease deaths, while India reported an alarming increase, highlighting urgent need for stronger healthcare policies and preventive measures.