22 October 2026 (Navroze Bureau) Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note on Thursday as rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and mixed global market signals weigh on investor sentiment. GIFT Nifty indicated a weak opening, trading approximately 45 points lower and below the 22,700 mark in early trade.
Investors will closely monitor global market trends, developments in the Middle East, foreign institutional investor (FII) activity and the ongoing September-quarter earnings season. Movements in crude oil prices and the rupee will also remain important factors for the domestic market.
Sensex and Nifty Outlook Today
The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 are facing pressure following recent declines. Both benchmark indices have struggled to sustain their recovery amid concerns over expensive crude oil and the potential impact on India’s inflation and economic outlook.
The Sensex and Nifty fell sharply in Monday’s session, with the Sensex closing at 73,852.90 and the Nifty 50 settling at 22,888.95. Selling pressure in major banking stocks contributed to the decline.
For Thursday’s session, traders are likely to remain cautious while watching the market’s opening direction and the ability of the indices to hold important technical support levels.
Market participants will also assess corporate earnings to determine whether company performance can offset concerns about rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
GIFT Nifty Signals a Weak Opening
GIFT Nifty is an important indicator of the likely opening direction of India’s benchmark indices. Its movement below the previous reference level suggests that domestic equities could begin Thursday’s session under pressure.
However, GIFT Nifty is not a guarantee of how the market will perform throughout the day. Domestic buying, institutional flows, earnings announcements and changes in global sentiment can influence the actual opening and subsequent trading direction.
Investors should therefore monitor early market movements rather than relying solely on the futures indicator.
Crude Oil Prices Above $110 Raise Concerns
Crude oil prices remain one of the biggest factors influencing the Indian stock market. Brent crude rose to around $110.02 per barrel in early trading on Thursday, while US crude gained to approximately $97.98 per barrel.
Higher oil prices can create challenges for India, which imports a substantial share of its crude oil requirements. A prolonged rise in energy prices can increase import costs, put pressure on inflation, affect the rupee and reduce profit margins for companies that depend heavily on fuel and transportation.
Sectors such as aviation, paints, chemicals and oil-consuming industries may face cost pressures if crude prices remain elevated. Oil marketing companies and other energy-related businesses may also see stock-specific movements depending on their exposure to changing prices.
Investors will closely follow geopolitical developments that could disrupt oil production or shipping routes.
Wall Street Ends Higher, but US Futures Turn Weak
US stock markets closed higher on Wednesday, providing some support to global investor sentiment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 360.21 points, or 0.69%, to close at 52,856.09. The S&P 500 advanced 0.58% to 7,757.17, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% to 26,702.86.
Gains in technology shares and corporate earnings helped support the US market during the session.
However, US stock futures were trading lower on Thursday morning in Asia. Dow futures slipped around 0.3%, S&P 500 futures declined approximately 0.5%, and Nasdaq-100 futures fell around 0.7%.
This contrast between the previous session’s gains and weaker futures suggests that investors remain cautious about the near-term outlook.
Asian Markets Deliver Mixed Signals
Asian markets showed a mixed trend in early trading on Thursday.
South Korea’s Kospi fell approximately 0.67%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up around 0.19%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained largely unchanged.
The mixed performance reflects uncertainty among investors as they assess global economic conditions, corporate earnings and geopolitical risks.
Market participants will also monitor Taiwan’s Taiex index for signals from the region’s technology-heavy stocks. Movements in semiconductor and artificial intelligence-related companies could influence sentiment across Asian equity markets.
For Indian investors, the direction of Asian markets may provide an indication of regional risk appetite, although domestic factors will remain equally important.
FII and DII Activity in Focus
Institutional investment flows will be another key factor for the Indian market.
Foreign institutional investors purchased Indian shares worth approximately ₹1,022.32 crore in the cash market on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors recorded net purchases of around ₹1,614.32 crore.
Continued domestic institutional buying could help absorb selling pressure, although a single session’s activity does not establish a lasting market trend.
Investors will watch whether foreign and domestic institutions continue buying shares or change their positions in response to crude oil prices, currency movements and global developments.
Stocks and Sectors to Watch
The September-quarter earnings season is expected to remain a major driver of individual stocks. Investors will assess revenue growth, profit margins, management commentary and future business outlooks.
Information technology stocks may react to global technology trends and demand expectations. Banking shares will remain in focus following recent pressure on major private-sector lenders.
Energy-sensitive sectors, including aviation, paints and chemicals, could see volatility as traders evaluate the impact of rising crude oil prices.
Investors should also watch companies announcing quarterly results, major orders or significant business updates during the session.